Dhaka: Climate-driven temperature changes are on track to cause about 430,000 more deaths annually by 2050-with 10 times more deaths occurring in poor countries than in richer countries, according to a new report released on Monday. How many of those lives can be saved largely depends on access to energy, particularly the electricity needed for cooling.
According to United News of Bangladesh, a new Climate Impact Lab report finds that many of the regions most impacted by extreme heat will also lack the resources to power the cooling needed to adapt. “Bangladesh is a clear example of why electricity access and electricity use are not the same thing. Nearly the whole country already has power access, yet people in the hardest-hit regions are not using much more of it, even as heat deaths there are projected to climb. Having a connection is not the same as increasing how much power gets used. That gap is what this report points to,” said Ashwin Rode, Director, Scientific Research, Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago and Fellow at the Climate Impact Lab.
Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and the Milton Friedman Distinguished Service Professor in Economics at the University of Chicago, emphasized the lifesaving role of air conditioning. He noted that climate change will lead to more AC adoption in wealthy countries. “Our research finds, however, that in too many countries around the world people will not be able to respond in the same way. The result is one of climate’s great cruelties-lots of death in the very countries that have contributed the least to climate change,” Greenstone said.
The report identifies that only the world’s richest currently have the resources needed to power cooling. As the world warms, middle-income countries will see their economies grow and energy markets mature enough to support greater consumption of electricity and access to cooling. Electricity used for cooling is projected to grow seven times more in middle-income than in low-income countries due to climate change. In low-income countries, the growth of electricity use per person is projected to be so small it would only be enough to power a single LED bulb for four months.
The report highlights that areas in 18 countries, home to 676 million people, are trapped in a deadly combination of extreme heat and lack of cooling. Around 377,000 people in these areas are set to die annually by 2050 due to hotter temperatures and little projected increase in energy consumption. These individuals reside in either low-income or lower middle-income countries, predominantly in northern sub-Saharan Africa, including Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Chad, as well as in Southern Asia, such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Myanmar.
In stark contrast, wealthier nations like those in the Gulf, including Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, consume much more electricity for cooling and are projected to see fewer deaths. For instance, the projected increase in electricity use per person in Niger will be 1/9th that of Saudi Arabia, leading to 27,000 more lives lost annually in Niger by 2050 due to a warmer climate.
Ashwin Rode highlighted the need for targeted interventions, stating, “We’ve identified the places most at risk of seeing more people die from the heat and least able to power up ACs to save them, so people and governments can zero in on saving the greatest number of lives.” He emphasized the importance of improved energy access, heat early warning systems, expanded healthcare access, and targeted social programs to protect vulnerable communities.
The Climate Impact Lab is working on a global playbook of data-driven adaptation priorities and tested strategies for funders, governments, and communities facing climate risks. The approaches proven effective are available in the Lab’s Adaptation Inventory. This report, focusing on energy use, is part of the Lab’s Adaptation Roadmap series, which emphasizes the need for adaptation alongside greenhouse gas emissions mitigation.